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Website META Description:Mark "the Animal's 30th Football Season Begins In August, 2010. 5-year Ncaa 5* Record Is 52-35 Nfl 49-33. More Records At Site. Premium Play Analysis And Modified Consensus Including Maingate Group, Wildcat Sports, 10* Totals Club, Etc From Sept-april.
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Service plays in RED finish 186-144 ATS the last 51 days
J.J. 5-1 last 6 25* Moves
Analysis of 4* Baylor +4 1/2, 4* 'UNDER' 159, and 3* Baylor +175 ML on 4/5/2021
On Saturday it looked like night and day defensively between these two teams. Baylor was in the face of every Houston Cougar and played smothering defense throughout. Gonzaga allowed UCLA countless wide-open shots and the Bruins, who hit 44 percent from the field throughout their first five games in the dance (nice sample size) would shoot 57.6% against the Zags. Of course you could also say UCLA played out of their minds on Saturday and still lost! It's been a span of eight games since anybody shot better than 48 percent against Baylor. It's been a span of six games since Baylor lost the turnover war and is +43 in that span. That's incredible. Gonzaga is the #1 scoring team in the country averaging 91.6 points per game. Baylor has yielded 63 or less in 4/5 NCAA Tournament games so far. The problem for Gonzaga is while there's a huge disparity on defense, Baylor is also the #3 scoring team in the nation and #1 in three-point shooting hitting at a 41 percent team clip, which is phenomenal. Gonzaga was #59 in three-point shooting and were only 7-of-21 on Saturday. They were only 12-of-20 from the free-throw shooting line. I kind of equate Saturday's UCLA/Gonzaga game to a great heavyweight fight. Both teams threw everything they had and it certainly will go down as one of the greatest games/fights ever. But could Gonzaga show some fatigue from that game? Coach Few has been here before but he's never won and I thought about that often on Saturday when the Zags barely beat a #11 seed. Baylor seems a little more battle-tested and fresher right now, especially on the defensive end. I was blown away how effective Baylor was on both ends of the floor against a very good Houston squad, who entered #2 in the country in points allowed this year behind Loyola-Illinois. The Bears don't beat themselves either with turnovers. They've had just 28 turnovers combined in their last four games. Over the same span, Gonzaga's had 45 miscues. I think it's a very bad sign for Gonzaga to struggle with a #11 seed as a 14-point favorite. I'll grab the points with Baylor, who I think is more than capable of winning outright. But again college kids have played so inconsistently throughout the season this year because of distractions so anything is possible. Remember UCLA went from a 51-49 ugly win hitting 38.9% against Michigan to hit 57.6% and score 81-points in regulation against the #1 team in the nation. That still makes zero sense to be. FYI: Tonight is the first time Baylor has been an underdog this season. Their cheapest price was -3 1/2 @ West Virginia. On Saturday Baylor scored the most points against Houston in one half this year (45) and held the Cougars to the fewest in one half (20).
In terms of the total, I doubt Gonzaga shoots anywhere near the 58.7 percent they made from the field against UCLA. But at the same time, Coach Few has to know his team has to tighten up defensively to beat Baylor. The Zags, in my opinion, were lazy on Saturday night defensively giving the Bruins way too many wide-open looks. There were 130 teams in the NCAA that scored more points than the Bruins did this year on a per-game average. That's hard to fathom if you watched the Final Four. There were times of the game I swear that neither team could miss and the Bruins seemed to either convert with a made field goal or get fouled virtually every time down the court in the 2nd half. Gonzaga has to be taking the mindset they have to play better defense tonight and good teams usually do following an embarrassing effort defensively. Baylor also shot lights out against Houston and let's not forget the Cougars were #2 in the nation allowing 58.2 points per game behind Loyola-Chicago. There are currently 137 teams in the country that play better defense than Gonzaga in terms of points pe